What investing from 2015 was like
2015 itself was flat, up just 1.3%, as oil prices crashed and China’s slowdown rattled markets. From there the next decade was strong: nine of the 11 calendar years were positive, and four of them returned more than 25%.
The two losing years were 2018 and 2022. The 2020 pandemic crash doesn’t show in these yearly figures at all: stocks fell about a third in five weeks that spring, then finished the year up 18.4%.
All at once, or a little each month?
$10,000 invested on the first day of 2015 grew to $40,475 by the end of 2025. The same $10,000 spread evenly over all 132 months, $75.76 a month, grew to $23,827. Across every 11-year period in the data, investing it all at once came out ahead in 95% of them, because money invested sooner spends longer in a market that rises more often than it falls.
How 2015–2025 ranks
There are 145 periods of 11 calendar years in the data, which starts in 1871. This one ranks 37 of 145, with 13.55% a year. The best was 1989–1999 at 19.49%, the median 8.61%, and the worst 1929–1939 at −1.01%.
Every year since 2015: returns, inflation and the value of $100
| Year | Total return | Inflation | Real return | $100 from 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +1.3% | +0.7% | +0.6% | $101.31 |
| 2016 | +11.9% | +2.1% | +9.7% | $113.40 |
| 2017 | +21.9% | +2.1% | +19.4% | $138.28 |
| 2018 | −4.4% | +1.9% | −6.2% | $132.18 |
| 2019 | +31.7% | +2.3% | +28.8% | $174.13 |
| 2020 | +18.4% | +1.4% | +16.8% | $206.14 |
| 2021 | +28.8% | +7.0% | +20.4% | $265.56 |
| 2022 | −18.1% | +6.5% | −23.1% | $217.47 |
| 2023 | +26.3% | +3.3% | +22.2% | $274.64 |
| 2024 | +25.0% | +2.9% | +21.5% | $343.36 |
| 2025 | +17.9% | +2.7% | +14.8% | $404.75 |
How this is calculated
Returns are calendar-year total returns: the change in the S&P 500 plus dividends, reinvested. Before 1957 the figures are Robert Shiller’s reconstruction of the broad U.S. market, as the index itself didn’t yet have 500 stocks. Real returns subtract December-to-December inflation. The data is yearly, so falls within a year, like the spring of 2020, don’t show; the biggest fall here is measured between year-end values. Fees and taxes are left out.
Every figure here comes from the same data as the S&P 500 return calculator. The method is on the methodology page.
Sources
- Robert J. Shiller, U.S. stock market data (S&P Composite, dividends and CPI), Yale University.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 total returns for recent years.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), December values.