How long will my money last?
It depends on four things: how much you have, how much you take out, what the money earns and how fast prices rise. The calculator takes your withdrawal at the start of each month, grows what’s left at your expected return, and raises the withdrawal once a year with inflation until the balance runs out.
Inflation is the part people leave out. $500,000 paying a flat $3,000 a month at 6% lasts 28 years, but by then $3,000 buys less than half what it does today. Raise the withdrawal 3% a year to keep your spending steady and the same savings last 18 years.
“I’m 65 with $500,000 and need $3,000 a month. How long will it last?”
About 18 years, to age 83, at a 6% return and 3% inflation. To last 30 years you’d start at about $2,097 a month. Try this scenario
How long will $500,000 last?
About 18 years at $3,000 a month and 32 years at $2,000, assuming a 6% return and withdrawals that rise 3% a year with inflation. Under the 4% rule, $500,000 pays $20,000 in the first year, about $1,667 a month, and on the same assumptions that lasts 45 years.
Years the money lasts, at a 6% return with withdrawals rising 3% a year:
| Savings | $2,000/mo | $3,000/mo | $4,000/mo | $5,000/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250,000 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| $500,000 | 32 | 18 | 12 | 9 |
| $750,000 | 83 | 32 | 21 | 15 |
| $1,000,000 | Never runs out | 57 | 32 | 23 |
“How long will $500,000 last using the 4% rule?”
About 45 years at a 6% return and 3% inflation, starting at $1,667 a month. Try this scenario
“I’m 62 with $750,000. How long will it last at $3,500 a month?”
About 25 years, to age 87. To reach 92, start at about $3,146 a month instead. Try this scenario
How long does $1 million last in retirement?
About 32 years at $4,000 a month, 23 years at $5,000 and 57 years at $3,000, with a 6% return and 3% inflation. At $2,000 a month it never runs out, because growth after inflation covers each withdrawal. To last exactly 30 years, you could start at about $4,195 a month.
“I have $1 million and want $4,000 a month. Will it last 30 years?”
Yes, about 32 years on these assumptions. You’d withdraw about $2.57 million in total as the monthly amount rises with prices. Try this scenario
Is the 4% rule safe? What history says
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your savings in the first year, raise it with inflation each year, and expect it to last 30 years. In U.S. stock data since 1871, it did in 122 of 126 thirty-year periods. At 7%, only 72 lasted. At 7.2%, which is $3,000 a month from $500,000, it was 68.
The history check in the results runs your withdrawal rate through every start year since 1871, all in U.S. stocks. It ignores your return assumption, and that’s the point: real returns arrive in an uneven order, and a crash early in retirement does far more damage than the same crash later. A steady 6% a year flatters every plan. For the full test, see does the 4% rule work?
What return and inflation should I use?
Use a return that matches how the money is invested, after fees. A mix of stocks and bonds is often planned at 5–6% a year; savings accounts and CDs pay less. For inflation, 2.5–3% is a common long-run assumption: U.S. prices rose about 2.9% a year on average over the last hundred years.
Small changes add up over decades. The $500,000 example lasts 16 years at a 5% return, 18 at 6% and 20 at 7%.
“Same $500,000 and $3,000 a month, but I expect only 5%.”
About 16 years, two fewer than at 6%. Try this scenario
FAQ
Does Social Security change how long my money lasts?
Yes, because it lowers what you take from savings. Enter only the part of your spending your savings must cover: if you need $5,000 a month and Social Security pays $2,000, enter $3,000. If your benefits start later, the years before them draw more, so try both amounts.
Should I include taxes in my withdrawal?
Yes, if the money is in a traditional 401(k) or IRA. Those withdrawals are taxed as income, so the amount you take out has to cover the tax as well as your spending. Qualified Roth withdrawals are tax-free, so for Roth money you can enter just what you plan to spend.
What happens if the market drops early in retirement?
Your money runs out sooner, even if the average return over the whole retirement is the same, because each withdrawal sells more shares at low prices. This is called sequence-of-returns risk. Spending a little less for a year or two after a big fall is the simplest defense.
How long will my money last if I keep it in cash?
Not as long as you might think, because inflation keeps raising what you need. $500,000 paying $3,000 a month, raised 3% a year, lasts just under 12 years earning nothing and 15 years earning 4%. Invested at 6%, it lasts 18. Enter your own rate to compare.
The month-by-month method and the history check are documented on the methodology page. Still saving? The FIRE calculator and Coast FIRE calculator work out when you’ll have enough.
Sources
- Robert J. Shiller, U.S. stock market data (S&P Composite prices, dividends and CPI), Yale University. With S&P Dow Jones Indices for recent years, used for the history check.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), used for historical inflation.
- William P. Bengen, “Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” Journal of Financial Planning, October 1994.
- Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard and Daniel T. Walz, “Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable,” AAII Journal, February 1998.