What investing from 2008 was like
Investing on January 1, 2008 meant starting with the worst calendar year since 1931. The housing bust turned into a banking crisis, Lehman Brothers failed in September, and the S&P 500 finished the year down 37%.
Recovery came faster than it felt at the time. A 27% gain in 2009 and steady years after it brought a 2008 investment back above its starting value by the end of 2012, dividends included. Since then the bull market has carried the return since 2008 to 11.07% a year.
All at once, or a little each month?
$10,000 invested on the first day of 2008 grew to $66,141 by the end of 2025. The same $10,000 spread evenly over all 216 months, $46.30 a month, grew to $41,660. Across every 18-year period in the data, investing it all at once came out ahead in 99% of them, because money invested sooner spends longer in a market that rises more often than it falls.
How 2008–2025 ranks
There are 138 periods of 18 calendar years in the data, which starts in 1871. This one ranks 39 of 138, with 11.07% a year. The best was 1982–1999 at 18.66%, the median 8.52%, and the worst 1929–1946 at 2.77%.
Every year since 2008: returns, inflation and the value of $100
| Year | Total return | Inflation | Real return | $100 from 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | −37.2% | +0.1% | −37.3% | $62.78 |
| 2009 | +27.1% | +2.7% | +23.8% | $79.80 |
| 2010 | +14.9% | +1.5% | +13.1% | $91.67 |
| 2011 | +2.1% | +3.0% | −0.9% | $93.56 |
| 2012 | +15.9% | +1.7% | +13.9% | $108.42 |
| 2013 | +32.4% | +1.5% | +30.5% | $143.58 |
| 2014 | +13.8% | +0.8% | +12.9% | $163.41 |
| 2015 | +1.3% | +0.7% | +0.6% | $165.55 |
| 2016 | +11.9% | +2.1% | +9.7% | $185.30 |
| 2017 | +21.9% | +2.1% | +19.4% | $225.96 |
| 2018 | −4.4% | +1.9% | −6.2% | $215.99 |
| 2019 | +31.7% | +2.3% | +28.8% | $284.55 |
| 2020 | +18.4% | +1.4% | +16.8% | $336.85 |
| 2021 | +28.8% | +7.0% | +20.4% | $433.96 |
| 2022 | −18.1% | +6.5% | −23.1% | $355.37 |
| 2023 | +26.3% | +3.3% | +22.2% | $448.80 |
| 2024 | +25.0% | +2.9% | +21.5% | $561.09 |
| 2025 | +17.9% | +2.7% | +14.8% | $661.41 |
How this is calculated
Returns are calendar-year total returns: the change in the S&P 500 plus dividends, reinvested. Before 1957 the figures are Robert Shiller’s reconstruction of the broad U.S. market, as the index itself didn’t yet have 500 stocks. Real returns subtract December-to-December inflation. The data is yearly, so falls within a year, like the spring of 2020, don’t show; the biggest fall here is measured between year-end values. Fees and taxes are left out.
Every figure here comes from the same data as the S&P 500 return calculator. The method is on the methodology page.
Sources
- Robert J. Shiller, U.S. stock market data (S&P Composite, dividends and CPI), Yale University.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 total returns for recent years.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), December values.