What investing from 1929 was like
Few start dates are worse. Money invested on January 1, 1929 rode the market up to its September peak, then down through the crash and three more losing years. By the end of 1932, with dividends reinvested, it had lost 63%, and the fall from the 1929 high was far deeper in between.
You often hear that it took 25 years to get back to even. That refers to the price index, which didn’t regain its 1929 high until 1954. Counting dividends, $100 invested at the start of 1929 was worth more than $100 again by the end of 1936. Prices had fallen in the meantime, so in buying power it recovered a year earlier, by 1935.
Held to today, even this worst-timed start grew 9.93% a year.
All at once, or a little each month?
$10,000 invested on the first day of 1929 grew to $97,352,521 by the end of 2025. The same $10,000 spread evenly over all 1,164 months, $8.59 a month, grew to $28,396,075. Across every 97-year period in the data, investing it all at once came out ahead every time, because money invested sooner spends longer in a market that rises more often than it falls.
How 1929–2025 ranks
There are 59 periods of 97 calendar years in the data, which starts in 1871. This one ranks 28 of 59, with 9.93% a year. The best was 1925–2021 at 10.64%, the median 9.89%, and the worst 1881–1977 at 7.97%.
Every year since 1929: returns, inflation and the value of $100
| Year | Total return | Inflation | Real return | $100 from 1929 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | −9.5% | +0.6% | −10.0% | $90.54 |
| 1930 | −22.7% | −6.4% | −17.4% | $69.97 |
| 1931 | −44.2% | −9.3% | −38.5% | $39.04 |
| 1932 | −5.8% | −10.3% | +5.0% | $36.77 |
| 1933 | +56.8% | +0.8% | +55.6% | $57.66 |
| 1934 | −8.0% | +1.5% | −9.4% | $53.04 |
| 1935 | +54.9% | +3.0% | +50.4% | $82.18 |
| 1936 | +32.6% | +1.4% | +30.7% | $108.92 |
| 1937 | −32.1% | +2.9% | −34.0% | $73.95 |
| 1938 | +17.5% | −2.8% | +20.9% | $86.89 |
| 1939 | +3.0% | 0.0% | +3.0% | $89.48 |
| 1940 | −8.9% | +0.7% | −9.6% | $81.51 |
| 1941 | −9.1% | +9.9% | −17.3% | $74.10 |
| 1942 | +21.7% | +9.0% | +11.7% | $90.21 |
| 1943 | +23.6% | +3.0% | +20.0% | $111.49 |
| 1944 | +19.7% | +2.3% | +17.0% | $133.42 |
| 1945 | +39.4% | +2.2% | +36.3% | $185.93 |
| 1946 | −12.1% | +18.1% | −25.5% | $163.52 |
| 1947 | +2.6% | +8.8% | −5.8% | $167.71 |
| 1948 | +9.5% | +3.0% | +6.3% | $183.66 |
| 1949 | +16.0% | −2.1% | +18.4% | $212.97 |
| 1950 | +34.3% | +5.9% | +26.8% | $285.98 |
| 1951 | +23.1% | +6.0% | +16.1% | $352.04 |
| 1952 | +18.4% | +0.8% | +17.5% | $416.64 |
| 1953 | −0.8% | +0.7% | −1.5% | $413.30 |
| 1954 | +56.0% | −0.7% | +57.2% | $644.71 |
| 1955 | +28.2% | +0.4% | +27.7% | $826.65 |
| 1956 | +6.4% | +3.0% | +3.3% | $879.39 |
| 1957 | −9.3% | +2.9% | −11.9% | $797.61 |
| 1958 | +43.4% | +1.8% | +40.9% | $1,144 |
| 1959 | +11.6% | +1.7% | +9.7% | $1,276 |
| 1960 | −0.7% | +1.4% | −2.1% | $1,267 |
| 1961 | +28.5% | +0.7% | +27.7% | $1,628 |
| 1962 | −9.2% | +1.3% | −10.4% | $1,478 |
| 1963 | +23.0% | +1.6% | +21.0% | $1,819 |
| 1964 | +16.6% | +1.0% | +15.5% | $2,121 |
| 1965 | +12.5% | +1.9% | +10.3% | $2,385 |
| 1966 | −10.4% | +3.5% | −13.4% | $2,138 |
| 1967 | +24.5% | +3.0% | +20.8% | $2,660 |
| 1968 | +11.0% | +4.7% | +6.0% | $2,954 |
| 1969 | −8.6% | +6.2% | −14.0% | $2,699 |
| 1970 | +3.6% | +5.6% | −1.9% | $2,796 |
| 1971 | +14.5% | +3.3% | +10.9% | $3,202 |
| 1972 | +19.2% | +3.4% | +15.2% | $3,816 |
| 1973 | −15.0% | +8.7% | −21.8% | $3,242 |
| 1974 | −27.0% | +12.3% | −35.0% | $2,368 |
| 1975 | +38.5% | +6.9% | +29.5% | $3,279 |
| 1976 | +24.2% | +4.9% | +18.4% | $4,073 |
| 1977 | −7.8% | +6.7% | −13.6% | $3,756 |
| 1978 | +6.4% | +9.0% | −2.4% | $3,997 |
| 1979 | +18.7% | +13.3% | +4.8% | $4,744 |
| 1980 | +32.8% | +12.5% | +18.0% | $6,298 |
| 1981 | −5.3% | +8.9% | −13.1% | $5,962 |
| 1982 | +21.2% | +3.8% | +16.7% | $7,227 |
| 1983 | +23.1% | +3.8% | +18.6% | $8,899 |
| 1984 | +6.0% | +3.9% | +1.9% | $9,430 |
| 1985 | +32.2% | +3.8% | +27.4% | $12,470 |
| 1986 | +19.1% | +1.1% | +17.8% | $14,846 |
| 1987 | +5.7% | +4.4% | +1.2% | $15,691 |
| 1988 | +16.6% | +4.4% | +11.7% | $18,302 |
| 1989 | +32.0% | +4.6% | +26.1% | $24,159 |
| 1990 | −3.4% | +6.1% | −9.0% | $23,333 |
| 1991 | +31.0% | +3.1% | +27.1% | $30,554 |
| 1992 | +7.6% | +2.9% | +4.6% | $32,876 |
| 1993 | +10.2% | +2.7% | +7.2% | $36,220 |
| 1994 | +1.2% | +2.7% | −1.4% | $36,651 |
| 1995 | +38.0% | +2.5% | +34.6% | $50,585 |
| 1996 | +23.1% | +3.3% | +19.1% | $62,250 |
| 1997 | +33.7% | +1.7% | +31.4% | $83,210 |
| 1998 | +28.7% | +1.6% | +26.7% | $107,116 |
| 1999 | +21.1% | +2.7% | +17.9% | $129,728 |
| 2000 | −9.1% | +3.4% | −12.1% | $117,910 |
| 2001 | −12.0% | +1.6% | −13.3% | $103,784 |
| 2002 | −22.3% | +2.4% | −24.1% | $80,672 |
| 2003 | +28.7% | +1.9% | +26.3% | $103,841 |
| 2004 | +10.8% | +3.3% | +7.3% | $115,076 |
| 2005 | +4.8% | +3.4% | +1.3% | $120,588 |
| 2006 | +15.7% | +2.5% | +12.9% | $139,569 |
| 2007 | +5.5% | +4.1% | +1.3% | $147,189 |
| 2008 | −37.2% | +0.1% | −37.3% | $92,405 |
| 2009 | +27.1% | +2.7% | +23.8% | $117,457 |
| 2010 | +14.9% | +1.5% | +13.1% | $134,922 |
| 2011 | +2.1% | +3.0% | −0.9% | $137,715 |
| 2012 | +15.9% | +1.7% | +13.9% | $159,584 |
| 2013 | +32.4% | +1.5% | +30.5% | $211,338 |
| 2014 | +13.8% | +0.8% | +12.9% | $240,523 |
| 2015 | +1.3% | +0.7% | +0.6% | $243,674 |
| 2016 | +11.9% | +2.1% | +9.7% | $272,745 |
| 2017 | +21.9% | +2.1% | +19.4% | $332,585 |
| 2018 | −4.4% | +1.9% | −6.2% | $317,918 |
| 2019 | +31.7% | +2.3% | +28.8% | $418,825 |
| 2020 | +18.4% | +1.4% | +16.8% | $495,805 |
| 2021 | +28.8% | +7.0% | +20.4% | $638,745 |
| 2022 | −18.1% | +6.5% | −23.1% | $523,069 |
| 2023 | +26.3% | +3.3% | +22.2% | $660,583 |
| 2024 | +25.0% | +2.9% | +21.5% | $825,861 |
| 2025 | +17.9% | +2.7% | +14.8% | $973,525 |
How this is calculated
Returns are calendar-year total returns: the change in the S&P 500 plus dividends, reinvested. Before 1957 the figures are Robert Shiller’s reconstruction of the broad U.S. market, as the index itself didn’t yet have 500 stocks. Shiller works from monthly average prices, so single years before 1957 can differ by a few points from other published tables: 1954 is 56.0% here and about 52.6% in the widely used NYU Stern (Damodaran) series. Real returns subtract December-to-December inflation. The data is yearly, so falls within a year, like the spring of 2020, don’t show; the biggest fall here is measured between year-end values. Fees and taxes are left out.
For what prices did over the same years, see what $100 in 1929 is worth today. Every figure here comes from the same data as the S&P 500 return calculator. The method is on the methodology page.
Sources
- Robert J. Shiller, U.S. stock market data (S&P Composite, dividends and CPI), Yale University.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 total returns for recent years.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), December values.